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Projections for the changes in Texas’ adult and juvenile correctional populations are presented. Sections contained in this report are: introduction and report highlights; arrest rates in Texas; adult correctional population projections; juvenile correctional population projections; qualitative review summary; and glossary. Appendixes explain what the methodology and assumptions for each correctional population projection.

Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2018 Cover

This is a great example of a report that informs the state legislature about population growth in both the adult and juvenile system. "Correctional population projections are produced to serve as a basis for biennial funding determinations … Both adult incarceration and juvenile state residential facility populations are expected to remain at or below [current] capacity" (p. 1). Sections following an executive summary include: Adult Arrests and Arrest Rates; Adult Correctional Population Projections; Juvenile Arrests and Arrest Rates; Juvenile Correctional Population Projections; and Glossary.

Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections: Fiscal Years 2014 to 2019 Cover

"Correctional facilities are mission driven. Data is relatively low priority, yet it is often data, and what it reveals, that forms the basis of correctional needs assessments. Projected Daily Population (ADP), in particular, is the foundation of every needs assessment" (p. 39). This article concisely explains how to use ADP to forecast population for your agency or facility. Sections of this article cover: straight line forecasting of ADP; the inevitability of change in admissions (ADM) and average length of stay (ALOS); Little's Law—ADP=(ADM/T) x ALOS (T being the days of duration being looked at like a week, month, year); historical analysis; historical ADP, ADM, and ALOS; forecasting future ADP—admissions first; estimating future ADP; and the assumption of change.

Forecasting Future Inmate Population Cover

Steps involved in developing an understanding of jail population dynamics and factors behind jail crowding are delineated. Sections of this report include: executive summary; how can factors behind jail crowding be identified?; key questions to ask in order to understand jail population dynamics; trends that are driving jail population growth; how to forecast future needs; benefits and elements of an effective analytic process; and elements of the analytic process. Appendixes include: "Preventing Jail Crowding: A Practical Guide" by Robert C. Cushman; jail survey form; data sources; proposed work plan for criminal justice analysts; and items to be included in the agency database.

Jail Crowding:  Understanding Jail Population Dynamics Cover

An explanation on how to use the jail population analysis formula is offered. This paper looks at: the sources of jail crowding; the dynamics that create changes in jail occupancy levels; swings in jail occupancy levels; a jail population analysis system; reducing the inmate population in a crowded jail; policy choices; and the key to preventing crowding.

Preventing Jail Crowding Cover

These proceedings are comprised of: Highlights of the Meeting Sessions; Stay Awake or You Will Trip Over the Future by Tom Esensten; Video Presentation: Beyond the Myths: Jails in Your Community introduced by Virginia Hutchinson; Defining the Future and Exploring Organizational Strategies by Esensten: Future Trends and Their Impact on Jail Management by Marilyn Chandler Ford; Jail Population Growth: Sources of Growth and Stability by Allen Beck; Jail Standards and Accreditation: Are There Still Advantages? by Tim Ryan et al; Accreditation: Open Forum Discussion; Use of New Technology by Barry Stanton and Otto Payne; Wrap-Up Issues; Use of Existing Technology for New Purposes by Joe Russo; Use of Technology: Open Forum Discussion; and Announcements and Discussion of Next Meeting by Richard Geaither and meeting participants.

Proceedings of Cover

"The federal prison system is by far the nation’s single largest jailer, with a total of 205,795 inmates at the beginning of October 2015. That’s roughly 50,000 more people in custody than in the second-largest prison jurisdiction, Texas. Though the states collectively incarcerate the majority of people in prison in the United States—nearly 1.4 million as of 2014—any conversation about mass incarceration must consider the federal prison population. The growth, size, and cost of the federal system jeopardize the safety and security of inmates and staff, restrict the ability to provide programs designed to reduce recidivism, and crowd out other fiscal priorities … [this Forecaster] uses Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) data and incorporates trends and recent changes in the federal criminal justice system to forecast population trends and the impact of changes to rates of admission or lengths of stay. This tool is designed to highlight the unique drivers of the federal prison population and the types of policy changes that will be necessary to reduce the BOP population. All numbers reported in this feature (unless otherwise noted) are from the end of fiscal year 2014, and all projections are of impacts through 2023.

The Prison Population Forecaster // Federal Prison Population Cover

"Roughly 2.2 million people are locked up in prison or jail; 7 million are under correctional control, which includes parole and probation; and more than $80 billion is spent on corrections every year. Research has shown that policy changes over the past four decades have put more people in prison and kept them there longer, leading to exponential growth in the prison population even while crime has dropped to historic lows. But despite widespread agreement that mass incarceration is a serious problem, the national conversation is light on details about what it will take to achieve meaningful and sustainable reductions … To advance the policy conversation, decisionmakers and the public need to know the impact of potential policy changes. Our Prison Population Forecaster can estimate the effect, by state, of policies that aim to reduce prison admissions and length of stay for the most common types of offenses. The tool currently uses data from 15 states, representing nearly 40 percent of the national prison population, to forecast population trends and project the impact of changes on rates of admission or lengths of stay in prison … This forecasting tool paves the way for a more productive conversation about the need for tailored reforms that address the unique drivers of mass incarceration in each jurisdiction" (p.1). This website provides interactive access to these statistics comprising the Forecaster: select one of 15 states or all states; select offense/admission type—violent, nonviolent, property, drug, revocations, and all offenses; select policy change—reduce new admissions, and reduce length of stay; and state percent reduction—reduce by 5%, 10%, 25%, and 50%. The article looks at: the reforms needed to reduce mass incarceration at the state level; rethinking who goes to prison and how long they stay; and whether there is any low-hanging fruit left—more methods to reduce national prison populations.

The Prison Population Forecaster//State Prison Population Cover

Beginning in the late 1990’s, the National Institute of Corrections (NIC) Information Center began scanning social, economic, and corrections issues to inform the development of training programs and services offered by NIC. This report, now in its twelfth edition, and renamed from the Environmental Scan to the Corrections Environmental Scan, has continued to evolve into a popular tool that corrections practitioners use to inform their work in jails, prisons, and community corrections. Because there are many issues beyond what is addressed in this environmental scan that will potentially influence corrections, this report is intended to give a broad overview of selected current and anticipated trends and not to be comprehensive in scope. The methods for selecting articles, reports, and other materials was based on a scan of news sources, websites, and corrections-specific publications. As part of the ongoing work of the NIC Information Center in supporting the work of corrections professionals, staff regularly monitors reports and publications from state, national, global, and independent sources. The report is arranged with the topics: population, demographics, economy, workforce, technology, substance abuse and mental health, healthcare, and crime and recidivism statistics. Each section gives a summary of trends and developments in corrections, and includes national and global perspectives. A new feature debuts the new NIC website and highlights the State Statistics Information page. This web page provides lists of resources related to local, state, and federal statistics displayed to help you see the current state of the corrections industry as of the last set of reported data.

Beginning in the late 1990’s, the National Institute of Corrections (NIC) Information Center began scanning social, economic, and corrections issues to inform the development of programs and services offered by NIC. This report, now in its 11th edition, has continued to evolve into a popular tool that corrections practitioners also use to inform their work in jails, prisons, and community corrections. Because there are many issues beyond what is addressed in this environmental scan that will potentially influence corrections, this report is intended to give a broad overview of selected current and anticipated trends and not intended to be comprehensive. 

The method for selecting articles, reports, and other materials was based on a scan of popular magazines, newspapers, and websites as well as corrections-specific publications. As part of the ongoing work of the Information Center in supporting the work of corrections practitioners, staff regularly monitors reports and publications from state, national, and independent sources. The report is arranged starting with global and broader influences on corrections and moves to specific corrections issues. Each section of the report gives an overview of the topic followed by corrections-specific trends and developments in this area” (p. 3). 

Sections of this report are: introduction; international developments; demographic and social trends; the workforce; technology; public opinion; the economy and government spending; criminal justice trends; corrections populations and trends; and mental health care in corrections.

Environmental Scan 2016 cover

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