The Pew-MacArthur Results First Initiative, a project of The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, works with states and localities to develop the tools policymakers need to identify and fund effective programs that yield high returns on investment.
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An actuarial evaluation to guide decision making at various points across the criminal justice continuum by approximating a person’s likelihood of reoffending.
Risk assessment in the criminal justice system is an evaluation used to estimate an individual’s likelihood of reoffending. This structured approach helps guide decision-making at various stages, including pretrial release, sentencing, prison classification, parole, and probation. By analyzing key risk factors, risk assessment tools assist authorities in making informed choices that balance public safety with fair and effective offender management.
Risk assessments rely on statistical models and historical data to identify patterns associated with recidivism. These evaluations typically consider factors such as criminal history, age at first offense, employment status, substance abuse history, mental health conditions, and social support systems. Some tools also assess dynamic risk factors, like an individual’s behavior while incarcerated or their response to rehabilitation programs, allowing for reassessment over time.
Common risk assessment instruments categorize offenders into low, moderate, or high-risk groups. These classifications influence decisions on supervision levels, program eligibility, and intervention strategies.
Despite its benefits, risk assessment has faced criticism for potential bias in the algorithms used, particularly regarding racial and socioeconomic disparities. Critics argue that reliance on historical data can reinforce systemic inequalities. To address these concerns, many experts advocate for transparent, validated, and regularly updated assessment models that incorporate individualized evaluations alongside statistical predictions.
When implemented responsibly, risk assessment serves as a valuable tool for enhancing justice system efficiency, improving rehabilitation efforts, and reducing overall recidivism rates.
- "There are people who can be safely managed in the community and the only reason they are not is they don't have any money whatsoever," says Washoe District Court Judge Elliott Sattler, who has administrative oversight responsibilities for the county's pretrial services.
- Identifying defendants who are most likely to not return to court for their trials is key to reforming the bail system in Wisconsin and nationwide. Doing so will cut costs and increase public safety.
- The Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction (DRC) has long supported supervision and programming practices rooted in the ever-growing body of the "what works" literature. Implementing evidence based practices begins with utilizing a valid risk and need assessment tool.
- This is the first thorough systematic scan of the U.S. to determine the extent to which these [risk assessment] tools have been adopted across the country (p. 1). Sections of this report address" statewide uniform assessment; layered/regional assessment; locally administered assessment; and design variation in assessment tools.
- This article reviews a new pretrial risk assessment tool that calculates whether a defendant is at low, moderate, or high risk for failure to appear at trial or to commit another crime if released. The tool, incorporated in Alaska’s new bail statute, aids in the judicial officer’s decision regarding pretrial bail conditions.
The Colorado Pretrial Assessment Tool (CPAT) is an empirically-based pretrial risk assessment tool developed to inform bond decisions in Colorado.