Causes of Aging in the Federal Prison Population and a Comparison to States

The unremitting growth of older inmates in prison populations is one of the most pressing concerns in federal corrections today; however, empirical research on the topic says little about the causes of these changes. This article addresses this gap by applying an established methodology to analyze and quantify the contributions of key factors driving the growth of aging federal prison populations. Specifically, we use data from the Federal Justice Statistics Program (FJSP) to determine how changes to prisoner age at entry, rate of entry, and rate of exit have shaped the prison population over recent decades. Overall, we find that from 1994 to 2004, rapid increases in the rate of prisoner admission explain the majority of growth in the elderly population, but that since 2004, age at admission has been much more important, with longer time served and rate of admission also playing a role. These influences appear to be quite different from those shaping state prison populations. Our results suggest optimal policy responses to aging populations will need to be tailored to their jurisdiction.