Years of Predicting Dangerously

The author looks at recent empirical evidence for clinical adjustments to actuarial-based risk prediction for sexually violent predators (SVPs). Based upon “five research studies directly comparing pure-actuarial to adjusted-actuarial risk assessment for sexual recidivism ... the evidence does not show that adjusting or overriding the results of an actuarial instrument increases the accuracy of risk assessment. On the contrary, there is evidence that adjustments or overrides often decrease accuracy ... [Therefore] because extant research shows that clinical adjustments do not increase, and often reduce, accuracy of risk assessments, SVP evaluators should generally refrain from using clinical adjustments or overrides in our risk assessments” (p. 23-24).